The Russian-Ukrainian Conflict has Pushed up Oil Prices. What Impact will it Have on the Auto Industry?

author: DAMAVO ®

While paying attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, suddenly, the impact of "95 filling up" cannot be underestimated.

From 24:00 on March 17, 2022, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively. The national average: No. 92 gasoline is increased by 0.59 yuan per liter; No. 95 gasoline is increased by 0.62 yuan per liter; No. 0 diesel is increased by 0.62 yuan per liter. No. 95 gasoline has entered the era of 9 yuan, and the circle of friends is full of jokes about refueling.

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  • The Trend of International Oil Prices Rose

Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, not only China, but also international crude oil prices soared during the session. Among them, the price of Brent crude oil futures in April rose to a maximum of US$105.79 per barrel during the session, hitting a new high since 2014; as of the close of the day, Brent April crude oil futures closed at $99.08/barrel, an increase of 2.31%; WTI crude oil futures closed at $92.81/barrel, an increase of 0.77%.

Changes in international oil prices will also further affect domestic refined oil prices. According to the principle of "ten working days", in the first six domestic working days of this cycle, the change rate of crude oil has reached 2.35%, exceeding the upward standard.

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  • The Chip Shortage will Face the Limitation of the Shortage in the Next Two Years

According to foreign media reports, ASML, one of the main suppliers of the chip industry, said that in the next two years, due to supply chain shortages, the capacity expansion plans of chipmakers will be limited by shortages of key equipment.

The warning comes from Peter Wennink, CEO of ASML, which dominates the global market for lithography machines. Wennink said: "There will be a shortage of supply next year and the year after. This year we have more shipments than last year, but if you look at the demand curve, you will see that the supply is still not enough, and we need to increase capacity significantly, and the increase needs to be More than 50%, and it will take time." Wennink said ASML is evaluating with suppliers how to increase capacity. He said it was unclear how much investment would be needed. ASML has 700 suppliers, of which 200 are key suppliers.

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  • Navigation is Affected, or a Large Amount of Cargo is Accumulated, and the Freight Rate Increases.

On the last day of February, Russia and Ukraine took a breather from the first round of negotiations between the two sides, but the situation remained tense. Since the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the passage of merchant ships in many waters near the two countries has been affected.

On the Russian side, it announced that it would suspend the passage of merchant ships in the Sea of ​​Azov. You must know that the Sea of ​​Azov is the "high sea" between Russia and Ukraine, and the volume of freight and passenger traffic is very large.

If the Sea of ​​Azov stops for a long time and several major ports are forced to suspend operations, there is a high probability that it will have a significant impact on the global supply chain and further stimulate freight rates to rise. At the same time, if the short-term conflict does not end, it means that the container cargo at the port may be sealed for a long time.

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